Lula Builds Lead In 2
Brazil Pres Polls; Serra Tied In 2nd
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
SAO PAULO -- In what may spur further selling in the markets Wednesday, two
polls released Tuesday night now show opposition candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva enjoys a commanding lead in the race for president, while
government-backed candidate Jose Serra is technically tied in second with two
other contenders.
According to a Vox Populi survey of 2,000 people across Brazil
, Lula would win 42% of the vote if an election were held today.
Government-backed and market-friendly candidate Jose Serra holds 17%. But he's
technically tied with ex-governor of Rio de Janeiro, Anthony Garotinho, and
former finance minister Ciro Gomes of the Socialist People's Party. They,
respectively, have 15% and 12% of the vote. The Vox Populi survey has a margin
of error of 2.8 percentage points.
The poll doesn't bode well for Serra, who is fending off calls within his own
party to make way for another presidential candidate. On top of this, Serra's
image is being hurt by corruption allegations targeted at one of his former
campaign fundraising managers.
Ultimately, Vox Populi's survey confirms Serra's campaign is yet to strike a
chord with the nation after an influential newspaper poll detailed the same
findings late Tuesday.
According to the poll, conducted by the Datafolha organization, Workers' Party candidate Lula gained 43% of the intention to vote, up from 32% in April. Former health minister Serra remained in a three-way tie for second place with Garotinho and Gomes. Serra polled only 17%, down from 22% in the April survey. Garotinho, off a percentage point, stood at 15%, while Gomes gained a point to 14%. The poll also showed Lula handily winning a run-off against any of the other candidates. In Brazil , run-off elections are required if no candidate pulls more than 50% of the vote.
Last week, several international investment banks downgraded Brazilian bonds,
citing the prospect of a Workers' Party presidency. The move was widely
condemned by politicians across the political spectrum, who said a Workers'
Party victory would not spell an end to the country's economic stability. Lula,
who is running for the presidency for the fourth time, is a former metal worker
who came to prominence organizing massive strikes in the 1980s. In previous
elections, Lula often enjoyed large leads in the months running up to the
election only to see them whittled away by more establishment-friendly
candidates. In this campaign, Lula has taken to wearing suits and taking pains
to reassure financial markets. The Datafolha poll interviewed 3,400 people and
had a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.
By Anthony Dovkants, Dow Jones Newswires. Article published by THE
WALL STREET JOURNAL on May 15, 2002.